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Peak Oil



 
 
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  #11  
Old May 22nd 08, 07:20 AM posted to rec.motorcycles,talk.politics.misc,rec.autos.driving
The Older Gentleman[_2_]
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 112
Default Peak Oil

John A. Weeks III > wrote:

> In article >,
> Henry > wrote:
>
> > "Robert Hirsch, author of Peaking of World Oil Production:
> > Impacts, Mitigation, and Risk Management (a.k.a. the
> > Hirsch Report), appeared on CNBC this morning. He said flat
> > out that new technologies and new drilling won't solve the
> > peak oil problem, and that we should expect $12-15/gallon
> > gasoline followed by rationing."

>
> How come the peak oil people act just like the tinfoil hat
> people did 10 years ago? Are they just as crazy? Or just
> as stupid?
>

How can you be so stupid and actually manage to breathe?


--
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chateau dot murray at idnet dot com
"What you're proposing to do will involve a lot of time
and hassle for no tangible benefit."
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  #12  
Old May 22nd 08, 07:55 AM posted to rec.motorcycles,talk.politics.misc,rec.autos.driving
GortWeasel
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 18
Default Peak Oil

On Wed, 21 May 2008 23:11:19 -0700, P. Roehling wrote:

>
> I gort news for ya Weasel: there are circa one billion new petroleum
> customers coming on line right about now in India and China. That's
> around one *seventh* of the World's total population.


> Exponentially increasing demand and an ever-decreasing supply will equal
> sky-high and rising prices for the foreseeable future.


Demand is increasing but it is not increasing exponentially. You
immediately lose all credibility for that statement.

As well, supply is not ever decreasing. As one example, consider the new
Brazilian fields...

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aBUoYKhu7PWk

And we musn't forget our old friend Mr Coal. Mr Coal is abundant in many
countries and he can converted to gasoline economically at an oil price
of $70/barrel.

What is happening right now is that people are speculating on oil and
this is causing a pricing bubble.
  #13  
Old May 22nd 08, 07:57 AM posted to rec.motorcycles,talk.politics.misc,rec.autos.driving
Timberwoof
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 103
Default Peak Oil

In article >,
GortWeasel > wrote:

> On Wed, 21 May 2008 20:30:18 -0500, Brent P wrote:
>
> > Peak oil is a fraud. High prices are due to fiat money. There are no
> > shortages, there is no production supply problem of any significance.
> > Oil companies continue to increase their reserves faster than sales.

>
>
> Yup. The price of oil is rising because the price of oil is rising. There
> is no other reason. The good news about price bubbles is that they
> eventually break.


This is not a "bubble". The supply of oil is finite. When it runs out,
it won't be available at any price.

--
Timberwoof <me at timberwoof dot com>
faq: http://www.timberwoof.com/motorcycle/faq.shtml
  #14  
Old May 22nd 08, 10:32 AM posted to rec.motorcycles,talk.politics.misc,rec.autos.driving
TOG@Toil
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 54
Default Peak Oil

On 22 May, 07:55, GortWeasel > wrote:
> On Wed, 21 May 2008 23:11:19 -0700, P. Roehling wrote:
>
> > I gort news for ya Weasel: there are circa one billion new petroleum

>
> As well, supply is not ever decreasing. As one example, consider the new
> Brazilian fields...
>
> http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aBUoYKhu7PWk


Supply *is* decreasing. It is a finite resource. The supply is finite.
As we use more, so there is less left. The fact that someone finds
some more in a new part of the world doesn't change that.
>
> And we musn't forget our old friend Mr Coal. Mr Coal is abundant in many *
> countries and he can converted to gasoline economically at an oil price
> of $70/barrel.
>

Coal is a finite resource as well. And the fact that there may be
hundreds of years' worth of coal left doesn't change that. And if we
switched to liquid fuel produced from coal, the reserves would only be
used up faster.

You are not very bright, are you?

> What is happening right now is that people are speculating on oil and
> this is causing a pricing bubble.


To a certain extent this is true. But that doesn't change the fact
that this, like all fossil fuels, is a non-replaceable resource and
therefore the supply is declining.
  #15  
Old May 22nd 08, 11:05 AM posted to rec.motorcycles,talk.politics.misc,rec.autos.driving
GortWeasel
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 18
Default Peak Oil

On Thu, 22 May 2008 02:32:27 -0700, TOG@Toil wrote:


>
> Supply *is* decreasing. It is a finite resource. The supply is finite.
> As we use more, so there is less left. The fact that someone finds some
> more in a new part of the world doesn't change that.


Not currently. Supply is still increasing.

>> And we musn't forget our old friend Mr Coal. Mr Coal is abundant in
>> many countries and he can converted to gasoline economically at an oil
>> price of $70/barrel.
>>

> Coal is a finite resource as well. And the fact that there may be
> hundreds of years' worth of coal left doesn't change that. And if we
> switched to liquid fuel produced from coal, the reserves would only be
> used up faster.
>
> You are not very bright, are you?


That is a strange comment to make. Is it your habit to say that when you
disagee with someone?

There is sufficient coal for gasoline production to see us over a
transition to a different fuel source. My country for example has
_thousands_ of years of coal reserves and I would be very happy to see it
used for gasoline production.


> To a certain extent this is true. But that doesn't change the fact that
> this, like all fossil fuels, is a non-replaceable resource and therefore
> the supply is declining.


It is certainly true at the present time. It is a speculative bubble.

However there is no proof at all that oil is a fossil fuel. It is quite
possible oil is abiotic in origin. Did the hydrocarbon lakes on Titan
originate from primitive life forms?
  #16  
Old May 22nd 08, 12:16 PM posted to rec.motorcycles,talk.politics.misc,rec.autos.driving
oasysco
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 5
Default Peak Oil

On May 21, 8:29*pm, Henry > wrote:
> * *http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4019
>
> * "Robert Hirsch, author of Peaking of World Oil Production:
> Impacts, Mitigation, and Risk Management (a.k.a. the
> Hirsch Report), appeared *on CNBC this morning. He said flat
> out that new technologies and new drilling won't solve the
> peak oil problem, and that we should expect $12-15/gallon
> gasoline followed by rationing."
>


The only problem with your post is that you have to believe in the
peak oil theory. If you buy into that then it makes sense. If you
don't then the guy is way off the mark. Sorta like "global warming" -
you either believe in it or not.

Greg
  #17  
Old May 22nd 08, 01:13 PM posted to rec.motorcycles,talk.politics.misc,rec.autos.driving
John A. Weeks III
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 111
Default Peak Oil

In article
>,
Timberwoof > wrote:

> In article >,
> "John A. Weeks III" > wrote:
>
> > In article >,
> > Henry > wrote:
> >
> > > "Robert Hirsch, author of Peaking of World Oil Production:
> > > Impacts, Mitigation, and Risk Management (a.k.a. the
> > > Hirsch Report), appeared on CNBC this morning. He said flat
> > > out that new technologies and new drilling won't solve the
> > > peak oil problem, and that we should expect $12-15/gallon
> > > gasoline followed by rationing."

> >
> > How come the peak oil people act just like the tinfoil hat
> > people did 10 years ago? Are they just as crazy? Or just
> > as stupid?

>
> What do you mean? The peak oil people I know have presented their
> research with plenty of past examples that prove their hypothesis and
> methods correct. It's sound science, if you'd just look into it.


It is bad science because they ignore a key fact, and that is
the amount of proven reserves of oil. According to industry
sources, the American Society of Petroleum Engineers, the
amount of proven oil reserves has been growing decade over
decade since the 1890s, and stands today at an all-time high.

The facts are that exploration is limited because there is so
much proven reserves. It makes little sense to search for more
oil when you are awash in the stuff and can pump it making
nearly unlimited profits.

If peak oil were true, we would see a lot more exploration,
and see the reserves start to fall year over year. We are
nowhere close to that.

We might get a peak for easy to recover oil in 50 or 75 years,
but that is generations into the future. Why scare people
today about something that is so far off into the future that
it might never happen? After all, fusion could come on-line
before that.

-john-

--
================================================== ====================
John A. Weeks III * * * * * 612-720-2854 * * * * *
Newave Communications * * * * * * * * * * * * http://www.johnweeks.com
================================================== ====================
  #18  
Old May 22nd 08, 01:46 PM posted to rec.motorcycles,talk.politics.misc,rec.autos.driving
[email protected]
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 336
Default Peak Oil

On May 22, 8:13 am, "John A. Weeks III" > wrote:
> In article
> >,
>
>
>
> Timberwoof > wrote:
> > In article >,
> > "John A. Weeks III" > wrote:

>
> > > In article >,
> > > Henry > wrote:

>
> > > > "Robert Hirsch, author of Peaking of World Oil Production:
> > > > Impacts, Mitigation, and Risk Management (a.k.a. the
> > > > Hirsch Report), appeared on CNBC this morning. He said flat
> > > > out that new technologies and new drilling won't solve the
> > > > peak oil problem, and that we should expect $12-15/gallon
> > > > gasoline followed by rationing."

>
> > > How come the peak oil people act just like the tinfoil hat
> > > people did 10 years ago? Are they just as crazy? Or just
> > > as stupid?

>
> > What do you mean? The peak oil people I know have presented their
> > research with plenty of past examples that prove their hypothesis and
> > methods correct. It's sound science, if you'd just look into it.

>
> It is bad science because they ignore a key fact, and that is
> the amount of proven reserves of oil. According to industry
> sources, the American Society of Petroleum Engineers, the
> amount of proven oil reserves has been growing decade over
> decade since the 1890s, and stands today at an all-time high.
>
> The facts are that exploration is limited because there is so
> much proven reserves. It makes little sense to search for more
> oil when you are awash in the stuff and can pump it making
> nearly unlimited profits.
>
> If peak oil were true, we would see a lot more exploration,
> and see the reserves start to fall year over year. We are
> nowhere close to that.
>
> We might get a peak for easy to recover oil in 50 or 75 years,
> but that is generations into the future. Why scare people
> today about something that is so far off into the future that
> it might never happen? After all, fusion could come on-line
> before that.
>
> -john-
>
> --
> ================================================== ====================
> John A. Weeks III 612-720-2854
> Newave Communications http://www.johnweeks.com
> ================================================== ====================




Peak oil refers to production rate, not 'how long' any given reserve
will last.

Dave
  #19  
Old May 22nd 08, 02:56 PM posted to rec.motorcycles,talk.politics.misc,rec.autos.driving
Brent P[_1_]
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 8,639
Default Peak Oil

On 2008-05-22, Timberwoof > wrote:
> In article >,
> Brent P > wrote:
>
>> On 2008-05-22, Henry > wrote:
>> >
>> > http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4019
>> >
>> > "Robert Hirsch, author of Peaking of World Oil Production:
>> > Impacts, Mitigation, and Risk Management (a.k.a. the
>> > Hirsch Report), appeared on CNBC this morning. He said flat
>> > out that new technologies and new drilling won't solve the
>> > peak oil problem, and that we should expect $12-15/gallon
>> > gasoline followed by rationing."

>>
>> There is no shortage of oil. None. Zero zip. Put in an order with the
>> saudi's they will sell you as much as you can buy.
>>
>> The scarcity is artifical. The main reason for the price increase is the
>> dollar.
>>
>> Here, some simple math. Oil used to be ~$30/bbl. Now it's ~$130/bbl. The
>> euro used to be ~85 cents. That's 35 euro/bbl then. Now a euro is
>> ~$1.58. That's 82 euro/bbl. Oil in euro terms is only 2.34X while in
>> dollars it is 4.33X. Now in terms of gold, because the euro inflates
>> too, oil isn't that much different.
>>
>> http://www.kitco.com/ind/saville/may022006.html
>>
>> And silver:
>>
>> http://www.itulip.com/images/OilvsSi...03-2006-25.gif
>>
>> As of today's close, 1960s 90% silver US coin, $0.35 face is worth
>> $4.55. Gasoline is still less than 35 cents a gallon in
>> US constitutional money.
>>
>> Peak oil is a fraud. High prices are due to fiat money. There are no
>> shortages, there is no production supply problem of any significance.
>> Oil companies continue to increase their reserves faster than sales.

>
> Nope. Not true, Brent. My father's a petroleum geologist and he confirms
> it.


So he's saying the oil companies are lying on their annual reports?
Commiting fraud? There's no shortage of oil. there are no lines, demand
is being met. Who can't get the oil or oil products they want? Who?
Nobody.

> Keynesian economics only works where resources are plentiful; what
> you're proposing is just wishful thinking.


Keynesian economics doesn't work period. Let me re-phrase that, it
doesn't work for us, the people who don't get the new money first.

With regard to basing the value of money on silver and gold, there has
been no increase in the price of oil or gasoline. I'll stick with the
Austrian school.


  #20  
Old May 22nd 08, 02:58 PM posted to rec.motorcycles,talk.politics.misc,rec.autos.driving
Brent P[_1_]
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 8,639
Default Peak Oil

On 2008-05-22, Timberwoof > wrote:
> Look the first peak-oil nutcase presented his bad news in the 1950s ...


The world has been 'running out' of oil since the 1920s. Sorry, at this
point it's chicken little, especially when the americas alone have a few
saudi arabias worth of more expensive to turn into gasoline oil that is
very profitable at todays prices.


 




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