dwindling/growing number of cars?

anyone ever hear of a statistic on the number of registered older,
antique, vintage cars?

i guess the question is something like?

in any given model year 300,000 new go-mobiles are registered
the next year less, 10 years later 100,000, 20 years 10,000 and so on

so the registered ones decline in relationship to their age,
but? does it reach a point where someone decides this is
a classic and then people start buying and restoring them

so the number begins to grow?

just a thought

then maybe it reaches another level where people just
get tired of them and they rust away?

what do you think?

bill

Actually I believe you will find MORE not fewer. It took Henry
Ford about 20 years to sell 1,000,000 cars. The current new car
selling rate is about 18,000,000 per year, twenty-five years ago
in 1978 it was only 9,000,000 per year. Todays cars are much
better vehicles than back then as well and a higher percentage
should be available as time goes by.


mike hunt





wrote:
>
> anyone ever hear of a statistic on the number of registered older,
> antique, vintage cars?
>
> i guess the question is something like?
>
> in any given model year 300,000 new go-mobiles are registered
> the next year less, 10 years later 100,000, 20 years 10,000 and so on
>
> so the registered ones decline in relationship to their age,
> but? does it reach a point where someone decides this is
> a classic and then people start buying and restoring them
>
> so the number begins to grow?
>
> just a thought
>
> then maybe it reaches another level where people just
> get tired of them and they rust away?
>
> what do you think?
>
> bill

> wrote in message
...
> Actually I believe you will find MORE not fewer. It took Henry
> Ford about 20 years to sell 1,000,000 cars.

Well, that all depends on WHICH Ford. The Model T was introduced in October
of 1908 and was discontinued in 1927 -- that's 19 years and he sold 15
million of them.

Rabbit

no let me re-state this

lets just say 1957 corvette

no idea how many they sold

but 100% got registered

the next year attrition, accidents, whatever took place
and there were only 90% of that

next year 75%

and on and on

then maybe in 72 only 20% that were made were still
around and registered

then someone said "hey, i know there is this one
sitting in a barn in montana"

and in 1973 there were now 21%
and a bunch more were found in somebody's estate,
so now in 1974 24% or the original year of production are now
registered?

so? where am i going with this?

anyway then ......

>anyone ever hear of a statistic on the number of registered older,
>antique, vintage cars?
>
>i guess the question is something like?
>
>in any given model year 300,000 new go-mobiles are registered
>the next year less, 10 years later 100,000, 20 years 10,000 and so on
>
>so the registered ones decline in relationship to their age,
>but? does it reach a point where someone decides this is
>a classic and then people start buying and restoring them
>
>so the number begins to grow?
>
>just a thought
>
>then maybe it reaches another level where people just
>get tired of them and they rust away?
>
>what do you think?
>
>bill

What about those of us that don't register their antiques or classics but do
drive them with repair plates ?

Bill
> wrote in message
...
> no let me re-state this
>
> lets just say 1957 corvette
>
> no idea how many they sold
>
> but 100% got registered
>
> the next year attrition, accidents, whatever took place
> and there were only 90% of that
>
> next year 75%
>
> and on and on
>
> then maybe in 72 only 20% that were made were still
> around and registered
>
> then someone said "hey, i know there is this one
> sitting in a barn in montana"
>
> and in 1973 there were now 21%
> and a bunch more were found in somebody's estate,
> so now in 1974 24% or the original year of production are now
> registered?
>
> so? where am i going with this?
>
> anyway then ......
>
> >anyone ever hear of a statistic on the number of registered older,
> >antique, vintage cars?
> >
> >i guess the question is something like?
> >
> >in any given model year 300,000 new go-mobiles are registered
> >the next year less, 10 years later 100,000, 20 years 10,000 and so on
> >
> >so the registered ones decline in relationship to their age,
> >but? does it reach a point where someone decides this is
> >a classic and then people start buying and restoring them
> >
> >so the number begins to grow?
> >
> >just a thought
> >
> >then maybe it reaches another level where people just
> >get tired of them and they rust away?
> >
> >what do you think?
> >
> >bill
>

gettin way to far theoretical here

here is the question

lots of cars are sold, lots fall by the wayside
is there a point where the number of cars of a year type model cease
to decline and start to come back due to collector interest and then
as that interest wanes start declining again?



On Sat, 27 Sep 2003 00:07:03 GMT, "berkshire bill"
> wrote:

>What about those of us that don't register their antiques or classics but do
>drive them with repair plates ?
>
>Bill
> wrote in message
.. .
>> no let me re-state this
>>
>> lets just say 1957 corvette
>>
>> no idea how many they sold
>>
>> but 100% got registered
>>
>> the next year attrition, accidents, whatever took place
>> and there were only 90% of that
>>
>> next year 75%
>>
>> and on and on
>>
>> then maybe in 72 only 20% that were made were still
>> around and registered
>>
>> then someone said "hey, i know there is this one
>> sitting in a barn in montana"
>>
>> and in 1973 there were now 21%
>> and a bunch more were found in somebody's estate,
>> so now in 1974 24% or the original year of production are now
>> registered?
>>
>> so? where am i going with this?
>>
>> anyway then ......
>>
>> >anyone ever hear of a statistic on the number of registered older,
>> >antique, vintage cars?
>> >
>> >i guess the question is something like?
>> >
>> >in any given model year 300,000 new go-mobiles are registered
>> >the next year less, 10 years later 100,000, 20 years 10,000 and so on
>> >
>> >so the registered ones decline in relationship to their age,
>> >but? does it reach a point where someone decides this is
>> >a classic and then people start buying and restoring them
>> >
>> >so the number begins to grow?
>> >
>> >just a thought
>> >
>> >then maybe it reaches another level where people just
>> >get tired of them and they rust away?
>> >
>> >what do you think?
>> >
>> >bill
>>
>

> gettin way to far theoretical here
>
> here is the question
>
> lots of cars are sold, lots fall by the wayside
> is there a point where the number of cars of a year type model cease
> to decline and start to come back due to collector interest and then
> as that interest wanes start declining again?

I think it would be impossible to come up with exact numbers, but what does
happen is that cars come back into fashion, people collect them, and then
after a while they become so old that they aren't driven very much. In the
1970s brass touring cars were all the rage and clubs would drive them great
distances.

But the old owners died off, the new owners (often receiving them in wills)
didn't have much interest in them, and they went into museums. I think the
cars of the 1940s will follow them there in the next little while. It all
goes in cycles, with the next generation interested in cars that are a
little closer to their age group -- hence the recent surge in 1960s and some
1970s cars.

Rabbit

> I have heard that, for one marque (Frazer Nash?) there are now more
> genuine cars in circulation than were ever made by the factory. Using
> the "60% original" rule, two complete cars can be turned into three
> "genuine" cars using spare parts.
>

I think that if you were able to check GM's record, the number of SS cars
built versus the number of SS cars that show up in shows or auctions would
be hilarious!

Rabbit

Rabbit wrote:

>>I have heard that, for one marque (Frazer Nash?) there are now more
>>genuine cars in circulation than were ever made by the factory. Using
>>the "60% original" rule, two complete cars can be turned into three
>>"genuine" cars using spare parts.
>>
>
>
> I think that if you were able to check GM's record, the number of SS cars
> built versus the number of SS cars that show up in shows or auctions would
> be hilarious!
>
> Rabbit
>
>
And then there's the Miracle Of Fiberglass. Anyone care to guess the
number of '41 Willys currently streeting or stripping compared to actual
production numbers? I be that would make the "SS" phenomenon seem like
small potatoes.

Rabbit ) wrote:
: I think it would be impossible to come up with exact numbers, but what does
: happen is that cars come back into fashion, people collect them, and then
: after a while they become so old that they aren't driven very much. In the
: 1970s brass touring cars were all the rage and clubs would drive them great
: distances.

: But the old owners died off, the new owners (often receiving them in wills)
: didn't have much interest in them, and they went into museums. I think the
: cars of the 1940s will follow them there in the next little while. It all
: goes in cycles, with the next generation interested in cars that are a
: little closer to their age group -- hence the recent surge in 1960s and some
: 1970s cars.

I think what you say is true, but it reminds me of something I have
wondered about before... what happens to the old restored car. In the 70s
there was an active antique car club here with a variety of restored old
cars. The club is still active, but mostly with different members, and
nobody knows where the cars that were owned by the membership back then
have gone. They aren't all in museums, and they were restored, so they
didn't go to junkyards. They just seem to have disappeared.

Back to the original question: I certainly see more Mustangs now than I
did 10-15 years ago. The power of repro sheetmetal...

--
Greg Beaulieu Dartmouth, Nova Scotia, Canada