Peak Oil

(Brent P) wrote in
:

> On 2008-05-22, Timberwoof > wrote:
>> Look the first peak-oil nutcase presented his bad news in the 1950s
>> ...
>
> The world has been 'running out' of oil since the 1920s. Sorry, at
> this point it's chicken little, especially when the americas alone
> have a few saudi arabias worth of more expensive to turn into
> gasoline oil that is very profitable at todays prices.

These days in the US, the most expensive part of extracting oil is
buying the politicians.

--
Bert Hyman | St. Paul, MN |

On 22 May, 11:05, GortWeasel > wrote:
> On Thu, 22 May 2008 02:32:27 -0700, TOG@Toil wrote:
>
> > Supply *is* decreasing. It is a finite resource. The supply is finite.
> > As we use more, so there is less left. The fact that someone finds some
> > more in a new part of the world doesn't change that.
>
> Not currently. Supply is still increasing.
>
<snip>
>
> There is sufficient coal for gasoline production to see us over a
> transition to a different fuel source. *My country for example has
> _thousands_ of years of coal reserves and I would be very happy to see it
> used for gasoline production.

Thousands of years at the present rate of consumption. But how many if
we switched off the oil tap and opened the coal bunker? Not the same
thinbg at all.
>
> > To a certain extent this is true. But that doesn't change the fact that
> > this, like all fossil fuels, is a non-replaceable resource and therefore
> > the supply is declining.
>
> It is certainly true at the present time. It is a speculative bubble.

So how do you reconcile that with your assertion "Supply is still
increasing?" Make your mind up. *Processing*, or *refining8 of oil may
be increasing, but if you are withdrawing stocks from a non-renewable
source, then the supply is not increasing.
>
> However there is no proof at all that oil is a fossil fuel.

There is no "proof" that smoking causes cancer, either.

Like I said, you aren't very bright.

On 2008-05-22, Scott in SoCal > wrote:
> On Wed, 21 May 2008 20:30:18 -0500, Brent P
> wrote:
>
>>On 2008-05-22, Henry > wrote:
>>>
>>> http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4019
>>>
>>> "Robert Hirsch, author of Peaking of World Oil Production:
>>> Impacts, Mitigation, and Risk Management (a.k.a. the
>>> Hirsch Report), appeared on CNBC this morning. He said flat
>>> out that new technologies and new drilling won't solve the
>>> peak oil problem, and that we should expect $12-15/gallon
>>> gasoline followed by rationing."
>>
>>There is no shortage of oil. None. Zero zip. Put in an order with the
>>saudi's they will sell you as much as you can buy.
>
> Set your VCR/DVR to record the CNN special "Out of Gas: We Were
> Warned" and please give your point-by-point rebuttal. If you can't
> catch the show, send me your address and I'll burn you a copy on DVD-R
> for you to watch.
>
> I'm seriously interested in how you would respond to the data
> presented in that show.

Sorry missed it. I am not into mass-media propoganda. I've outlined why
we are not out of gas or out of oil many times over. You should know it
by now.

Maybe the production of saudi jed-shotgun-crude peaks. But
there is so much more oil that is profitable at $130/bbl right now, that
it's just insane. Saudi oil is profitable at over $5/bbl. There are huge
oil deposits that in total make saudi arabia look small in north and
south america that are profitable at $40/bbl. They don't get touched
because opening the pipes in saudi arabia could put them under and the
US taxpayer pays the political and military costs in the middle east.

Seriously... The recent find in brazil alone is just the 'tip of the ice
berg' and already exceeds the biggest saudi fields.

It's called artifical scarcity scott. It's what happens when free
markets close down and cartels control a resource. Like diamonds.

You know as well as I do why nobody is opening refineries to make money
on the high gasoline prices. they can't. It's impossible to do it in a
timely manner given the regulation. That makes it a bad business
decision, so big oil has a lock on it. $4/gal gasoline scott... you know
if the free market was working there would be upstart companies trying
to undercut. Where are they?

The last time I delt with this topic a few days ago I was presented with
the article on a field that Exxon has been dicking around with for 30
years with excuses of why they don't drill. Alaska's government now
wants to reassign the leases to other companies that will drill.

The world is awash in known oil. It's just all been blocked off with
regulation and big oil's inside track. Gasoline production was
intentionally bottlenecked by big oil for higher margins.

Big oil is making RECORD PROFITs. if there was a real shortage of oil
they wouldn't be making those profits, because they wouldn't hae the oil
to sell and they would be paying a lot more for what they could get.
They do and they aren't.

On 2008-05-22, Timberwoof > wrote:

> This is not a "bubble". The supply of oil is finite. When it runs out,
> it won't be available at any price.

Yes it is a bubble. The housing bubble money has found a new home, oil.

Oil will not run out so long as the sun still shines. In a few hundred
or a thousand years if it's rate of use doesn't taper off and nobody
bothers to explore for more, then maybe it will get scarce. actually
scarce. But man already knows how to make a light sweet crude from
agricutural waste products:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermal_depolymerization

On 22 May, 15:26, Brent P > wrote:
> On 2008-05-22, Timberwoof > wrote:
>
> > This is not a "bubble". The supply of oil is finite. When it runs out,
> > it won't be available at any price.
>
> Yes it is a bubble. The housing bubble money has found a new home, oil.
>
> Oil will not run out so long as the sun still shines. In a few hundred
> or a thousand years if it's rate of use doesn't taper off and nobody
> bothers to explore for more, then maybe it will get scarce. actually
> scarce.

We're not necessarily talking about scarce. Yes, there's a helluva lot
out there. Equally, there are a helluva lot of people about to start
using more of it. Like the Chinese and Indians. They want cars too.

> But man already knows how to make a light sweet crude from
> agricutural waste products:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermal_depolymerization

Oh, well, we're saved, then.

I do find that the assertions that there's no need to worry about oil
seem to emanate mostly from the Yanks, who more than anyone are used
to what they consider to be a limitless source of cheap energy. But
the US ceased to be a net exporter of oil decades ago. In Europe, one
of the most important oil producers used to be Romania. And now?

As for the $12 gallon, we have it already in the UK. Nearly. $12 per
Imperial gallon, anyway: $10 per US. As I've said before, the massive
taxation on motor fuel that we have in (most of) Europe has served to
promote the development of fuel-efficient engines the like of which
the US has failed to develop on a decent scale. It has served to
instil a 'no-waste' culture, which is no bad thing. And interestingly,
it has insulated European motorists from most of the oil price shock.
When the oil price doubles, the price at the pumps doesn't. Our
personal and national economies are geared to run on expensive fuel.
Yours isn't.

The US was long ago overtaken as the world's largest exporter by
Europeans. Sooner or later, the US is going to have to change the way
it behaves about energy use. Preferably sooner.

PS: I still want a Yank musclecar like a modern 'Vette or Mustang.....

On 2008-05-22, TOG@Toil > wrote:
> On 22 May, 15:26, Brent P > wrote:
>> On 2008-05-22, Timberwoof > wrote:
>>
>> > This is not a "bubble". The supply of oil is finite. When it runs out,
>> > it won't be available at any price.
>>
>> Yes it is a bubble. The housing bubble money has found a new home, oil.
>>
>> Oil will not run out so long as the sun still shines. In a few hundred
>> or a thousand years if it's rate of use doesn't taper off and nobody
>> bothers to explore for more, then maybe it will get scarce. actually
>> scarce.
>
> We're not necessarily talking about scarce. Yes, there's a helluva lot
> out there. Equally, there are a helluva lot of people about to start
> using more of it. Like the Chinese and Indians. They want cars too.

The world is awash in oil. China and india probably haven't even been
well explored for oil either. I don't think you grasp how much oil there
is in the world that is profitable at today's prices to make gasoline
out of. It's one of those numbers that might as well be infinity. Tata's
and Cherry's increasing car sales won't be a bother *if* oil returns to
being a free market instead of a cartel industry.

>> But man already knows how to make a light sweet crude from
>> agricutural waste products:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermal_depolymerization
>
> Oh, well, we're saved, then.

That wasn't the point. The point was to prove oil can't ever 'run out'.

> I do find that the assertions that there's no need to worry about oil
> seem to emanate mostly from the Yanks, who more than anyone are used
> to what they consider to be a limitless source of cheap energy. But
> the US ceased to be a net exporter of oil decades ago. In Europe, one
> of the most important oil producers used to be Romania. And now?

So what? The world is still awash in oil. The US has lots of off limits
oil and oil that oil companies don't drill because they prefer cheaper
to extract sources or they just don't want to for other reasons. But
there's no need to worry about import vs. export. The worry is that the
US doesn't make much of anything anymore. That is a dollar/federal
reserve problem. That's really what this oil price problem is, it's a
dollar problem. It's a government spending problem. There's enough oil
production capacity to meet demand. My guess is that with the higher
prices demand will fall and production will be scaled back, etc... if we
had a free market in oil, people would be jumping into the business, but
what we have is a cartel system, the cartel system will scale back
production.

> As for the $12 gallon, we have it already in the UK. Nearly. $12 per
> Imperial gallon, anyway: $10 per US. As I've said before, the massive
> taxation on motor fuel that we have in (most of) Europe has served to
> promote the development of fuel-efficient engines the like of which
> the US has failed to develop on a decent scale. It has served to
> instil a 'no-waste' culture, which is no bad thing. And interestingly,
> it has insulated European motorists from most of the oil price shock.
> When the oil price doubles, the price at the pumps doesn't. Our
> personal and national economies are geared to run on expensive fuel.
> Yours isn't.

All the arrogance and ignorance in one paragraph. Europeans are not a
'no-waste' culture and all tax scheme accomplished is for people in
europe to be needlessly impoverished for decades. If I want a small car,
I go down to the dealership and write a check. They are available here,
and they don't cost anywhere near what they do in the UK, again because
of oppressive taxation. Being taxed to death on something is not a
virtue. Seriously if people decide they want light weight cars the auto
market here will react in a matter of weeks. Sure, the big three might
get smacked hard, but that's because the companies are run by idiots.
If they really wanted to live all they would need is an emergency
wavier from the government to bring in the models they sell in europe.
You forgot that didn't you? That much of the european cars you're
talking about are manufactured by Ford and GM or companies they own.

How long to you think with the appropiate political pressure it would
take for Ford to be selling Fiestas, Kugas, and other models in the
US? My guess is if things get bad enough 4 weeks plus shipping time. The
UAW will scream but if things get bad enough they won't have a choice,
it will be allow it or be out of work forever.

> The US was long ago overtaken as the world's largest exporter by
> Europeans. Sooner or later, the US is going to have to change the way
> it behaves about energy use. Preferably sooner.

The chinese are the world's largest exporters because practically every
US and european company moved their manufacturing there.

In article >,
John A. Weeks III > wrote:
>In article >,
> Henry > wrote:
>
>> "Robert Hirsch, author of Peaking of World Oil Production:
>> Impacts, Mitigation, and Risk Management (a.k.a. the
>> Hirsch Report), appeared on CNBC this morning. He said flat
>> out that new technologies and new drilling won't solve the
>> peak oil problem, and that we should expect $12-15/gallon
>> gasoline followed by rationing."
>
>How come the peak oil people act just like the tinfoil hat
>people did 10 years ago? Are they just as crazy? Or just
>as stupid?

Just because they're crazy doesn't mean they're wrong. Though while I
don't believe in "peak oil", $12-15 gasoline with rationing is
certainly possible. It just takes an administration willing to make
some really stupid moves. Like banning OPEC oil imports, for
instance.
--
There's no such thing as a free lunch, but certain accounting practices can
result in a fully-depreciated one.

On 2008-05-22, P. Roehling > wrote:
>
> "Brent P" > wrote
>
>> Oil will not run out so long as the sun still shines.
>
> And the supply of optimistic nutjobs is even more endless than the supply of
> crude.

Put down the mainstream media crack pipe and do some research. You're
being lied to. The world is awash in oil. I've detailed the large
reserves of oil the americas many times on usenet and now the new find
in brazil on top of all of that. Sure Brazil's new find is hard to
develop, but it's icing on the cake of oil that is already profitable
with EXISTING technology at US$40/bbl.

Guess what... 4 hours old on google news... MORE OIL!

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5j...TOUyAD90QO2KG1

Brazil finds more oil near huge offshore field

4 hours ago

RIO DE JANEIRO, Brazil (AP) . Brazil's state-run oil company Petroleo
Brasileiro SA says it has struck more oil in ultra-deep waters near the
huge offshore Tupi field.

<...>

On May 21, 8:29*pm, Henry > wrote:
> * *http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4019
>
> * "Robert Hirsch, author of Peaking of World Oil Production:
> Impacts, Mitigation, and Risk Management (a.k.a. the
> Hirsch Report), appeared *on CNBC this morning. He said flat
> out that new technologies and new drilling won't solve the
> peak oil problem, and that we should expect $12-15/gallon
> gasoline followed by rationing."
>

How much of that, used in jetliners, when burned would cause a large
building to fall down?

Wait, we already know the answer to that....it's almost as predictable
as Henry's kook rants.

Kirb

On 2008-05-22, Turby > wrote:
> On Thu, 22 May 2008 13:20:41 -0500, Brent P
> wrote:
>
>>...The world is still awash in oil. The US has lots of off limits oil
>
> Do you think that just because prices go up that people will decide
> it's OK to drill in National Parks or on the beaches of resort towns?

That isn't where most of the off-limits oil is.

>>... Seriously if people decide they want light weight cars the auto
>>market here will react in a matter of weeks. Sure, the big three might
>>get smacked hard, but that's because the companies are run by idiots.

> Weeks? You are funny. What world do you live in that entire design,
> manufacturing, and delivery industries can change overnight?

The cars already exist, they are in production.

> European markets produce enough cars for their market alone.

I want a cite that they are full-tilt capacity, otherwise you're full of
****. Actually you are already full of **** since I can buy a european
made car today if I want to.

> There aren't
> enough cars produced by those makers to supply the American market
> next month- hell, they couldn't do it in two years.

Clue time:
No need to fill the full US market from europe, only the amount of
small cars that Ford and GM have buyers for.

> You think the companies are run by idiots, but they'll be able to
> solve the problem? It takes an idiot to think that.

The 'problem' is Ford and GM's US product line up. Japanese makes are
fine. European makes are more or less fine. GM and Ford make small cars
for other markets around the world. All they need do is get the product
to market in the US. The main blockage is regulatory and union, that is
POLITICAL. Proper political pressure from a crisis will clear that up
quickly. If they don't Ford and GM and Chrysler will go out of business.
po-tee-tweet. Americans will still be able to buy small cars.

Fuel price is not an oil problem anyway, it's a central banking &
managed trade problem.