Clunkers boosts Ford sales; GM, Chrysler fall

On Sep 7, 3:53*am, who > wrote:
> In article >,
>
> *CountFloyd > wrote:
> > *In Canada, the program really helped the
> > Dodge Grand Caravan, the Windsor, Ontario plant kept three shifts going!
>
> Actually they cut back a shift, then had to shut down during the
> reorganization due to parts shortages. *Vans became very difficult to
> get.
> Now they are back to 3 shifts and own the mni van market again.

Owns? The Odyssey outsells both the Caravan and T & C (although their
combined sales top the Odyssey). Further, Honda has far fewer fleet
sales than Chrysler.

> The only Chrysler van not selling well is the bunch (20,000 I hear) that
> Chrysler built for VW.

Well, no VWs sell all that well in the US these days.

In article
>,
" > wrote:

> Well, no VWs sell all that well in the US these days.

Here in Canada the VW new 2.0L diesel sells very well.
It's fuel mileage is similar to the Prius in Real World measurements.

In the previous several years the Golf has sold very well.


VW is building a new plant in the USA, so there must be a good demand
for VW products.
> A statement from parent Volkswagen AG said the company approved up to $991.4
> million to build the facility, with the plant aiming for a capacity of
> 150,000 cars a year. It plans to start production in 2011.
> Volkswagen Group of America said it will produce a new midsize sedan designed
> specifically for the North American consumer and invest $1 billion in the
> economy.

wrote:

>> Now they are back to 3 shifts and own the mni van market again.
>
> Owns? The Odyssey outsells both the Caravan and T & C (although their
> combined sales top the Odyssey).

So, they do indeed own that market (which they created in the first
place). Its silly to separate the Caravan and T&C just to give honduh a
"win." But honduh is following Chrysler's lead from 15 years ago- today
its honduh minivans that can't keep a transmission together for more
than 50k miles it seems.

On Sep 15, 11:23*am, Steve > wrote:
> wrote:
> >> Now they are back to 3 shifts and own the mni van market again.
>
> > Owns? *The Odyssey outsells both the Caravan and T & C (although their
> > combined sales top the Odyssey).
>
> So, they do indeed own that market (which they created in the first
> place). Its silly to separate the Caravan and T&C just to give honduh a
> "win."

But that's why Ford wins the "pickup sales race" some years -- GM's
sales are split between Chevy and GMC. If the maker chooses to split
the models, they can hardly complain about the sales being split. It
happens -- Ford Taurus and Mercury Sable sales were never lumped
together, for example.


>But honduh is following Chrysler's lead from 15 years ago- today
> its honduh minivans that can't keep a transmission together for more
> than 50k miles it seems.

Not according to what the owners report to Consumer Reports -- I
suggest you check which make has lots of red circles and which lots of
black ones.

" > writes:

> On Sep 15, 11:23Â*am, Steve > wrote:
>> wrote:
>> >> Now they are back to 3 shifts and own the mni van market again.
>>
>> > Owns? Â*The Odyssey outsells both the Caravan and T & C (although their
>> > combined sales top the Odyssey).
>>
>> So, they do indeed own that market (which they created in the first
>> place). Its silly to separate the Caravan and T&C just to give honduh a
>> "win."
>
> But that's why Ford wins the "pickup sales race" some years -- GM's
> sales are split between Chevy and GMC. If the maker chooses to split
> the models, they can hardly complain about the sales being split. It
> happens -- Ford Taurus and Mercury Sable sales were never lumped
> together, for example.

GM can't complain when Ford does it in their advertising. But if
somebody in a GM group were to claim Ford trucks outsell GM because they
outsell GMC, I'd hope someone would correct it.

>
>>But honduh is following Chrysler's lead from 15 years ago- today
>> its honduh minivans that can't keep a transmission together for more
>> than 50k miles it seems.
>
> Not according to what the owners report to Consumer Reports -- I
> suggest you check which make has lots of red circles and which lots of
> black ones.
>
I hadn't heard abut Honda's transmissions before, but CR is a completely
non-credible source.
--
As we enjoy great advantages from the inventions of others, we should
be glad of an opportunity to serve others by any invention of ours;
and this we should do freely and generously. (Benjamin Franklin)

On Sep 15, 7:18*pm, Joe Pfeiffer > wrote:
> " > writes:
> > On Sep 15, 11:23*am, Steve > wrote:
> >> wrote:
> >> >> Now they are back to 3 shifts and own the mni van market again.
>
> >> > Owns? *The Odyssey outsells both the Caravan and T & C (although their
> >> > combined sales top the Odyssey).
>
> >> So, they do indeed own that market (which they created in the first
> >> place). Its silly to separate the Caravan and T&C just to give honduh a
> >> "win."
>
> > But that's why Ford wins the "pickup sales race" some years -- GM's
> > sales are split between Chevy and GMC. *If the maker chooses to split
> > the models, they can hardly complain about the sales being split. *It
> > happens -- Ford Taurus and Mercury Sable sales were never lumped
> > together, for example.
>
> GM can't complain when Ford does it in their advertising. *But if
> somebody in a GM group were to claim Ford trucks outsell GM because they
> outsell GMC, I'd hope someone would correct it.
>
>
>
> >>But honduh is following Chrysler's lead from 15 years ago- today
> >> its honduh minivans that can't keep a transmission together for more
> >> than 50k miles it seems.
>
> > Not according to what the owners report to Consumer Reports -- I
> > suggest you check which make has lots of red circles and which lots of
> > black ones.
>
> I hadn't heard abut Honda's transmissions before, but CR is a completely
> non-credible source.

Yeah, I mean who cares what the actual owners, thousands of them,
say? What a person here claims another person said is so much more
reliable.

> --
> As we enjoy great advantages from the inventions of others, we should
> be glad of an opportunity to serve others by any invention of ours;
> and this we should do freely and generously. (Benjamin Franklin)

" > writes:

> On Sep 15, 7:18*pm, Joe Pfeiffer > wrote:
>> " > writes:
>>
>> > Not according to what the owners report to Consumer Reports -- I
>> > suggest you check which make has lots of red circles and which lots of
>> > black ones.
>>
>> I hadn't heard abut Honda's transmissions before, but CR is a completely
>> non-credible source.
>
> Yeah, I mean who cares what the actual owners, thousands of them,
> say? What a person here claims another person said is so much more
> reliable.

Who cares what a self-selected sample, in violation of every principle
of polling, says? Not me. A person I've known on-line for years (and
met a couple of times in person) as a very reliable source of
information is so much more, well, reliable.
--
As we enjoy great advantages from the inventions of others, we should
be glad of an opportunity to serve others by any invention of ours;
and this we should do freely and generously. (Benjamin Franklin)

On Sep 16, 8:00*pm, Joe Pfeiffer > wrote:
> " > writes:
> > On Sep 15, 7:18*pm, Joe Pfeiffer > wrote:
> >> " > writes:
>
> >> > Not according to what the owners report to Consumer Reports -- I
> >> > suggest you check which make has lots of red circles and which lots of
> >> > black ones.
>
> >> I hadn't heard abut Honda's transmissions before, but CR is a completely
> >> non-credible source.
>
> > Yeah, I mean who cares what the actual owners, thousands of them,
> > say? *What a person here claims another person said is so much more
> > reliable.
>
> Who cares what a self-selected sample, in violation of every principle
> of polling, says? *Not me. *A person I've known on-line for years (and
> met a couple of times in person) as a very reliable source of
> information is so much more, well, reliable.

Yeah, who says the evaluations of thousands is more reliable than that
of one?

(You obviously know nothing about polling.)

> --
> As we enjoy great advantages from the inventions of others, we should
> be glad of an opportunity to serve others by any invention of ours;
> and this we should do freely and generously. (Benjamin Franklin)

> wrote in message
...
On Sep 16, 8:00 pm, Joe Pfeiffer > wrote:
> " > writes:
> > On Sep 15, 7:18 pm, Joe Pfeiffer > wrote:
> >> " > writes:
>
> >> > Not according to what the owners report to Consumer Reports -- I
> >> > suggest you check which make has lots of red circles and which lots
> >> > of
> >> > black ones.
>
> >> I hadn't heard abut Honda's transmissions before, but CR is a
> >> completely
> >> non-credible source.
>
> > Yeah, I mean who cares what the actual owners, thousands of them,
> > say? What a person here claims another person said is so much more
> > reliable.
>
> Who cares what a self-selected sample, in violation of every principle
> of polling, says? Not me. A person I've known on-line for years (and
> met a couple of times in person) as a very reliable source of
> information is so much more, well, reliable.

>Yeah, who says the evaluations of thousands is more reliable than that
>of one?

>(You obviously know nothing about polling.)

Dude, it's common knowledge that CR is biased towards imports. Do
you even know what self-selecting is all about? Let me illustrate here.

A ragazine I'll call Crap Reports or CR for short, has a circulation of 100.

All of that 100 people get eval surveys.

20% of the 100 people buy imports. 50% of the people who buy
imports have problems with them and are dissatisfied with the factory
resolution, and so are highly motivated to complain. That's 10 people
if you can't do the math. The other half of the import buyers are
generally satisfied and so aren't motivated to complain or praise.

80% of the 100 people buy domestics. 20% of them have problems
and are highly motivated to complain. That's 16 people if you can't
do the math. The other 64 people are generally satisfied and so aren't
motivated to complain or praise.

The surveys go out. The dissatisfied people in both the import and
domestic groups get the survey and think "Ha, this is my chance to
stick it to that jerkoff car company" So, all of them sit down and put
black marks over the entire survey about their vehicle.

The satisfied people aren't much motivated to spend a lot of time responding
to a dumb survey, so only 2% of them respond.

CR gets the surveys back. The domestics return 16 surveys full of vitrol,
and 12 surveys that are generally satisfied. The imports return 10 surveys
that are full of vitrol and 2 surveys that are generally satisfied.

CR then calculates the results as follows:

28 domestic owners responded
12 import owners responded
60 non-respondents

CR assumes the market is split 50-50 between imports and domestics,
(since it's obviously rediculous that everyone doesn't have a car) so
there must be 50 imports and 50 domestics out there. Since it's also
well known that happy people mostly aren't going to waste time responding,
the response rate on happy people is low, so they toss those responses
completely.

So they arrive at the following assumptions:

32% of domestic owners have problems with their cars (16/50)

20% of import owners have problems with their cars (20/50)

Therefore, Imports win.

In reality, although 75% of domestic owners are satisfied, only 50%
of the Import owners are satisfied.

REAL polls handle this skewing by several mechanisms:

1) They remove the influence of the self-selection. Think about it. People
that buy Crap Reports are likely to be poorer. Rich people with plenty
of money don't care about getting the "best deal" they just buy what they
want and sell it before the warranty runs out. And since they are buying
the most expensive cars, if they have a problem the dealership rolls out
the red carpet on a warranty service to the point that they will drive a
vehicle to the rich guy's house and tow off his new car that won't start.
(or whatever) You get that when you walk into a dealership and drop a
personal check for $60K down on a car. You don't get that when you
walk in and finance a $10K car and expect to get $500 off on your worn
out trade-in. Thus rich people aren't wasting time with CR and aren't
answering surveys. Thus, the CR surveys are going to be heavily weighted
with cheaper car models. A real polling org calls a demographic so
that they get a response from across the spectrum.

2) The apply statistical normalizing. To put it simply, it's impossible to
know on a self-selected survey what the actual penetration of a car
model is into the survey group. You would have to call everyone in
the CR subscriber group and ask them what kind of car they had,
and even then the results would only be accurate for the CR demographic,
which isn't applicable to the general public.

3) They use opposite questions to see if the subject is paying attention.
For
example a typical CR survey asks "On a scale of 1 to 10 how satisfied
are you with your car" then continues on. A real survey would ask this
same question, then about 20 questions later would ask "on a scale of
1 to 10, how dissatisfied are you with your car" If the subject is paying
attention then he would put a 2 on the second question if he had put an
8 on the first question. If the subject was just trying to rush through the
survey to get the "prize" for completing the survey, then the answers for
the 2 questions would likely both be an 8 but certainly would not mirror
each other. A real survey would toss that respondent.

Anyway, the Crap Reports ragazine doesn't do any of that which is why
their survey results are rubbish. In fact, you can apply several
reasonably-
sounding analysises to the above raw numbers and get completely opposite
and self-contradictory results.

Ted

"Ted Mittelstaedt" > writes:

> > wrote in message
> ...
> On Sep 16, 8:00 pm, Joe Pfeiffer > wrote:
>>
>> Who cares what a self-selected sample, in violation of every principle
>> of polling, says? Not me. A person I've known on-line for years (and
>> met a couple of times in person) as a very reliable source of
>> information is so much more, well, reliable.
>
>>Yeah, who says the evaluations of thousands is more reliable than that
>>of one?
>
>>(You obviously know nothing about polling.)
>
> Dude, it's common knowledge that CR is biased towards imports. Do
> you even know what self-selecting is all about? Let me illustrate here.

<snip>

Wow -- very nice discussion. I just figured he wasn't worth responding
to again.

Incidentally, while the problems are claimed to be fixed now, it turns
out Honda transmissions earlier this decade were so bad there was a
class-action lawsuit and settlement.
--
As we enjoy great advantages from the inventions of others, we should
be glad of an opportunity to serve others by any invention of ours;
and this we should do freely and generously. (Benjamin Franklin)