32.7 million electric cars by 2015

I think this article only pertains to pure electric cars, though if we
include hybrid cars that have both batteries and an internal
combustion engine, this figure sounds more realistic. Sill, 32
million vehicles is only a fraction of the total vehicles in the US.

http://www.nanovip.com/node/54589

lyon_wonder wrote:
> I think this article only pertains to pure electric cars, though if we
> include hybrid cars that have both batteries and an internal
> combustion engine, this figure sounds more realistic. Sill, 32
> million vehicles is only a fraction of the total vehicles in the US.
>
> http://www.nanovip.com/node/54589

Any projected number like this is meaningless. Haven't we heard the
same types of projects for flying cars and cars that drive themselves
over the last half century?

It may be 100% accurate, but projecting such numbers 6 years to the
future serves no purpose.

Notation here - I'm not faulting lyon wonder. I'm faulting the source
of the information.

Take care,
Rich

God bless the USA

--
Don't go around saying the world owes you a living.
The world owes you nothing. It was here first.
--Mark Twain

> "Rich Piehl" > wrote
> Any projected number like this is meaningless. Haven't we heard the same
> types of projects for flying cars and cars that drive themselves over the
> last half century?

Sort of like flat screen TVs, which Popular Electronics insisted were right
around the corner--back in the sixties.

--

Ciao, Paul D. DeRocco
Paul mailto

lyon_wonder wrote:

> I think this article only pertains to pure electric cars, though if we
> include hybrid cars that have both batteries and an internal
> combustion engine, this figure sounds more realistic. Sill, 32
> million vehicles is only a fraction of the total vehicles in the US.
>
> http://www.nanovip.com/node/54589


What a hare-brained notion this one is. Consider the number of D, AA
and AAA cells we throw away today, and multiply it by the additional
demands of 32 million electric vehicles. Imagine the power needed to
move just one vehicle, let alone 32 million of them. The number of AAA
cells needed is mind boggling. No wonder there is an interest in
electric vehicles, it is driven by greedy battery companies.

Until the used battery problem can be solved, electric cars will be a
major danger to the environment. Why aren't the auto manufacturers
compelled by law to use rechargeable battery technology? Is it because
there is a major conspiracy between government and the Asian battery
manufacturers lobby?



--

On Mar 2, 3:42*pm, Rich Piehl >
wrote:
> lyon_wonder wrote:
> > I think this article only pertains to pure electric cars, though if we
> > include hybrid cars that have both batteries and an internal
> > combustion engine, this figure sounds more realistic. *Sill, 32
> > million vehicles is only a fraction of the total vehicles in the US. *
>
> >http://www.nanovip.com/node/54589
>
> Any projected number like this is meaningless. *Haven't we heard the
> same types of projects for flying cars and cars that drive themselves
> over the last half century?
>
> It may be 100% accurate, but projecting such numbers 6 years to the
> future serves no purpose.
>
> Notation here - I'm not faulting lyon wonder. *I'm faulting the source
> of the information.

yup, don't disagree.... but from the article:

...."
Unlike any other battery technology, thin film solid-state batteries
show very high cycle life. Using very thin cathodes batteries have
been cycled in excess of 45,000 cycles with very limited loss in
capacity. After 45,000 cycles, 95% of the original capacity remained,
according to the report."

so here's my question -

what happens if/when this breakthrough occurs - whether it's next year
or 10 years from now...

What happens?

What are the things besides this breakthrough that would cause a shift
to electric cars away from IC-engine cars?

Don't dare forget that some of the first vehicles offered for sale to the
public in the earliest days of automobility - well over 100 years ago - were
battery-electrics.

And the reasons why they failed in the market in the 1890s and 1900s will be
the *EXACT SAME* reasons why they will fail in the market again (see: charge
range, turnaround time when refueling, etc).

That oft-recited quote - "Those who fail to learn from history are doomed to
repeat it" - applies here in full force.

--
___________________________________________ ____ _______________
Regards, | |\ ____
| | | | |\
Michael G. Koerner May they | | | | | | rise again!
Appleton, Wisconsin USA | | | | | |
___________________________________________ | | | | | | _______________

On Mar 3, 10:50*am, "Michael G. Koerner" > wrote:
> Don't dare forget that some of the first vehicles offered for sale to the
> public in the earliest days of automobility - well over 100 years ago - were
> battery-electrics.
>
> And the reasons why they failed in the market in the 1890s and 1900s will be
> the *EXACT SAME* reasons why they will fail in the market again (see: charge
> range, turnaround time when refueling, etc).
>
> That oft-recited quote - "Those who fail to learn from history are doomed to
> repeat it" - applies here in full force.

maybe... if 15 years ago someone told you that you'd be sitting down
with a laptop at Starbucks paying your bills online... would that be
history repeating itself?

my point is that some things are far out and my never happen but many,
many other things never thought possible.. also come to be....

it might be battery technology.. it might be battery-recharge
technology.. cell phone look to me to recharge quite quickly....and
yes.. I know a cell phone battery is not a car battery but ... change
does happen...

and so my question was - What happens IF such change actually
happens?

if it did happen... would there be a surge away from IC engines to
electric engines?

you know.... you can power an electric engine is a wide variety of
ways separately or in combination with fuels and batteries.... hybrids
have been around for a long time - remember diesel electric
locomotives?

and now.. the Navy is building warships with electric engines..
instead of shaft engines....

Larry G wrote:
> On Mar 3, 10:50 am, "Michael G. Koerner" > wrote:
>> Don't dare forget that some of the first vehicles offered for sale to the
>> public in the earliest days of automobility - well over 100 years ago - were
>> battery-electrics.
>>
>> And the reasons why they failed in the market in the 1890s and 1900s will be
>> the *EXACT SAME* reasons why they will fail in the market again (see: charge
>> range, turnaround time when refueling, etc).
>>
>> That oft-recited quote - "Those who fail to learn from history are doomed to
>> repeat it" - applies here in full force.
>
> maybe... if 15 years ago someone told you that you'd be sitting down
> with a laptop at Starbucks paying your bills online... would that be
> history repeating itself?

We were able to pay bills in a coffee shop before via wireless computer.

Huh. Guess I don't know my history

> > my point is that some things are far out and my never happen but many,
> many other things never thought possible.. also come to be....
>
> it might be battery technology.. it might be battery-recharge
> technology.. cell phone look to me to recharge quite quickly....and
> yes.. I know a cell phone battery is not a car battery but ... change
> does happen...
>
> and so my question was - What happens IF such change actually
> happens?
>
> if it did happen... would there be a surge away from IC engines to
> electric engines?

I think the point is that (barring huge techno-leaps) if electric cars
come to market with the same old issues of range, fueling time etc,
they'll fail again, regardless of the battery technology. Joe Sixpack
cares not a bit about the battery...he just wants a car he can drive
across the state and refuel on the way...

> > you know.... you can power an electric engine is a wide variety of
> ways separately or in combination with fuels and batteries.... hybrids
> have been around for a long time - remember diesel electric
> locomotives?
>
> and now.. the Navy is building warships with electric engines..
> instead of shaft engines....

"Electric engines" being what...?

"Larry G" > wrote in message
...
On Mar 2, 3:42 pm, Rich Piehl >
wrote:
> lyon_wonder wrote:
> > I think this article only pertains to pure electric cars, though if we
> > include hybrid cars that have both batteries and an internal
> > combustion engine, this figure sounds more realistic. Sill, 32
> > million vehicles is only a fraction of the total vehicles in the US.
>
> >http://www.nanovip.com/node/54589
>
> Any projected number like this is meaningless. Haven't we heard the
> same types of projects for flying cars and cars that drive themselves
> over the last half century?
>
> It may be 100% accurate, but projecting such numbers 6 years to the
> future serves no purpose.
>
> Notation here - I'm not faulting lyon wonder. I'm faulting the source
> of the information.

yup, don't disagree.... but from the article:

...."
Unlike any other battery technology, thin film solid-state batteries
show very high cycle life. Using very thin cathodes batteries have
been cycled in excess of 45,000 cycles with very limited loss in
capacity. After 45,000 cycles, 95% of the original capacity remained,
according to the report."

so here's my question -

what happens if/when this breakthrough occurs - whether it's next year
or 10 years from now...

What happens?

What are the things besides this breakthrough that would cause a shift
to electric cars away from IC-engine cars?


Some fantastic mpg numbers are being mentioned for the Chevy Volt,
http://gas2.org/2008/04/05/150-mpg-c...ak-peak-video/ and
http://www.usatoday.com/money/autos/...-07-volt_x.htm, among others,
mention 150 mpg.
While I do not want to discourage anyone from buying an electric vehicle, I
think that a reasoned look at the energy cost of driving electric vehicles
is warranted.
The Chevy Volt is said to have a battery pack of 16 kilowatt-hr and a full
electric range of 40 miles,
http://www.chevy-volt.net/chevrolet-volt-specs.htm. That calculates to
average electricity from the battery consumption of 0.4 kWh per mile.
How much will it cost to drive an electric car? Using the Volt's 0.4 kWh
per mile, and an average electricity cost to residential customers of 11.35
cents per kWh;
(http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electri...able5_6_b.html ) I calculate
a PRE-HIGHWAY TAX cost of 4.54 cents per mile. And the 4.54 cents per mile
assumes that there is no energy loss in charging the battery, and no energy
loss in the conversion back to electricity; in my opinion this is a very
optimistic assumption.
Would the4.54 cents per mile cost be a significant savings?
In my humble opinion the savings is OK, but not anything like the above 150
mpg would suggest.
The Chevy Volts appears is classified as a compact car. Several compact
cars (Ford Focus, Honda Civic, Toyota Corolla) average more than 25 miles
per gallon. In recent months gasoline has been selling below $2 per
gallon. Of this $2, $0.50 is highway tax, so in effect; the PRE-HIGHWAY
TAX cost of gasoline is below $1.50 per gallon, or around 6.0 cents per mile
for a 25 mpg car. (At highway-tax-paid cost of $2/gallon, the per mile
cost is 8 cents per mile.) This is clearly more than the 4.54 cents per
mile calculated above, but nowhere near the savings the 150 mpg would
suggest. By this calculation, driving a car with 33 mpg is likely to have
the same PRE-HIGHWAY TAX energy cost per mile as the Chevy Volt running on
electricity.
In my opinion, if there will be millions of electric cars on the roads,
governments (state and Fed.) will have no choice but to put a highway tax on
electric cars. Furthermore, if the number of electric cars will increase to
the millions, the demand for and cost of gasoline is likely to drop, while
the electricity demand and cost rise.
The cost of electricity is likely to swing less drastically then the cost of
crude oil and gasoline. Electricity supplies and cost are less likely to be
effected by OPEC and others. But, electricity and oil have a fair degree of
interchangeability (homes can be heated with oil, natural gas or
electricity); I think that energy costs will tend to even out in the long
term.
In the above calculation, the electric car may give an energy cost saving of
about 3.46 cents per mile. I tend to drive my cars around 80,000 miles
before trading. During those 80,000 mile, I would buy 3,200 gallons, and at
$2 per gallon pay $6,400 for gasoline. Driving an electric car for 80,000
miles, would cost $3,632 (80,000*0.0454), a savings of $2,768. When
electric cars will have to pay highway tax, the savings will diminish. If
gasoline prices go to $4 per gallon, and electricity cost would remain the
same, and no highway taxes on electric cars, then the saving would increase
to $9,168.
I will seriously consider buying an electric car, when the price premium for
that electric car will be no more than $2,768! Since I can buy a car with
25 mpg, but I do not think that any battery will work at 100% energy
efficiency, I consider the $2,768 premium a upper limit.
Compact cars like the Ford Focus cost less than $20,000. Numbers like
$35-40,000 are being mentioned for the Chevy Volt, http://gm-volt.com/.
Tax credit of $7,500 will help, but in my opinion GM needs to bring the
price of the Volt below $25,000.
More than 50% of electricity in the US is generated from coal. In my
opinion, electricity, as is generated today, is more harmful to the
environment and causes more global warming than gasoline.
The above is not intended to discourage people from buying electric cars,
but I would like to start a reasoned and reasonable discussion on the cost
of driving electric cars.
Ernie

Craig Zeni > wrote in
:

> Larry G wrote:

>> and now.. the Navy is building warships with electric engines..
>> instead of shaft engines....
>
> "Electric engines" being what...?
>

gas-turbine electrics or nuclear-electrics.

--
Jim Yanik
jyanik
at
kua.net