On Mar 18, 7:25 pm, "Ron Hinds" > wrote:

> Hurricanes and Global Warming: Interview with Meteorologist Dr. William Gray
> by James K. Glassman (September 12, 2005)
>
> Meteorologist Dr. William Gray may be the world's most famous hurricane
> expert. More than two decades ago, as professor of atmospheric science and
> head of the Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University, he
> pioneered the science of hurricane forecasting. Each December, six months
> before the start of hurricane season, the now 75-year-old Gray and his team
> issue a long-range prediction of the number of major tropical storms that
> will arise in the Atlantic Ocean basin, as well as the number of hurricanes
> (with sustained winds of 74 miles per hour or more) and intense hurricanes
> (with winds of at least 111 mph). This year, Gray expects more activity,
> with 15 named storms, including 8 hurricanes. Four of them, he says, will be
> intense.
>
> James Glassman: Dr. Gray, in the September issue of Discover Magazine, there's
> a remarkable interview with you. You're called the world's most famous
> hurricane.
>
> Dr. William Gray: Well that - you have to talk to my critics about that. I
> don't think they would agree with you.
>
> Glassman: Well you certainly.
>
> Gray: I've been around a long time, yes. I've been around studying
> hurricanes over 50 years now, I'm an old guy. Yes.
>
> Glassman: Well, you're in the hurricane forecasting business among other
> things?
>
> Gray: Well, we're in the seasonal hurricane forecasting business, and
> monthly. We don't do the short range, you know, one to two day crucial
> forecasts. That can only be done by one group at the National Hurricane
> Center. But we certainly do a lot of forecasting for different parts of the
> globe and the hurricane from a seasonal, monthly point of view. Yes.
>
> Glassman: And from a seasonal, monthly point of view, you had been
> predicting a growing number of hurricanes. Now, my question is in the wake
> of Katrina and some of the statements that we've heard immediately
> afterwards by advocates of the global warming theory - is global warming
> behind this increase in hurricanes?
>
> Gray: I am very confident that it's not. I mean we have had global warming.
> That's not a question. The globe has warmed the last 30 years, and the last
> 10 years in particular. And we've had, at least the last 10 years, we've had
> a pick up in the Atlantic basin major storms. But in the earlier period, if
> we go back from 1970 through the middle '90s, that 25 year period - even
> though the globe was warming slightly, the number of major storms was down,
> quite a bit down.
>
> Now, another feature of this is that the Atlantic operates differently. The
> other global storm basins, the Atlantic only has about 12 percent of the
> global storms. And in the other basins, the last 10 years - even though the
> Atlantic major storm activity has gone up greatly the last 10 years. In the
> other global basins, it's slightly gone down. You know, both frequency and
> strength of storms have not changed in these other basins. If anything, they've
> slightly gone down. So if this was a global warming thing, you would think,
> "Well gee, all of the basins should be responding much the same."
>
> Glassman: You're familiar with what your colleagues believe. Do you think
> many hurricane experts would take a different point of view, and would say,
> "Oh, it's global warming that's causing hurricanes?"
>
> Gray: No. All my colleagues that have been around a long time - I think if
> you go to ask the last four or five directors of the national hurricane
> center - we all don't think this is human-induced global warming. And, the
> people that say that it is are usually those that know very little about
> hurricanes. I mean, there's almost an equation you can write the degree to
> which you believe global warming is causing major hurricanes to increase is
> inversely proportional to your knowledge about these storms.
>
> Now there's a few modelers around who know something about storms, but they
> would like to have the possibility open that global warming will make for
> more and intense storms because there's a lot of money to be made on this.
> You know, when governments step in and are saying this - particularly when
> the Clinton administration was in - and our Vice President Gore was involved
> with things there, they were pushing this a lot. You know, most of
> meteorological research is funded by the federal government. And boy, if you
> want to get federal funding, you better not come out and say human-induced
> global warming is a hoax because you stand the chance of not getting funded.
>
> Glassman: We thank you very, very much for this interview. Thank you, Dr.
> Gray.
>
> Gray: Well thank you for asking me.
>
> I am convinced myself that in 15 or 20 years, we're going to look back on
> this and see how grossly exaggerated it all was. The humans are not that
> powerful. These greenhouse gases, although they are building up, they cannot
> cause the type of warming these models say - two to five degrees centigrade
> with a doubling of the greenhouse gases.
>
> Glassman: Well thank you very much for giving us your time.
>
> First appeared in Tech Central Station.
>
> http://www.capmag.com/article.asp?ID=4403- Hide quoted text -
>
> - Show quoted text -

Well, I say the same thing I say to the kids with their math homework;
don't just show me the answers, I want to check your work.