On Fri, 21 Nov 2008 09:59:24 -0500, MoPar Man > wrote:

>"Paul M. Eldridge" wrote:
>
>> Forgive me if this sounds flippant, but have the big-3 done much
>> in the way of long-term product planning and expensive R&D relative
>> to their peers?
>
>The Big-3 (B3) all produce a mix of cars that satisfy a variety of
>consumer needs, including fuel efficient small compacts.
>
>If the buying public in the US/Canada prefers to buy a foreign vehicle
>of any particular class or catagory or if they would only buy a B3
>vehicle only if priced substantially lower than a competing foreign
>model, then the reasons for this should be discussed here.
>
>Continuously stating that the B3 are losing sales to foreign (or more
>specifically, asian) cars because they are not making the correct mix
>vehicle types is flat-out wrong.

We've been walloped by high crude oil prices and now, in no small part
because of this, the economy is going into a nose dive. Neither of
these two events should come as any surprise. We all knew -- or
should have known -- the risks of being heavily dependent upon
imported oil and we've known that the marginal cost of new supplies is
steadily trending upward. We also knew that many North American
consumers were living well beyond their means and that sooner or later
these personal debt loads would become unsustainable. This is not the
type of market that favours a large portfolio of full-size luxury
trucks and SUVs, and to be financially dependent upon this one segment
is, quite frankly, an error in judgement of monumental proportions.

In addition, there's a growing awareness of how the choices we make as
consumers has a direct impact on our environment and our relations
with others. Those who are genuinely concerned about global climate
change, resource depletion, rampant consumerism, invading sovereign
nations under the pretence of routing-out terrorism and championing
world democracy when we all knew damn well the only reason was to
steal their oil, view trucks and SUVs as a shining example of all that
is wrong in this world.

>> If what we have today is the result of long-term product planning,
>
>What we have today is the result of 2 decades of consumer perception
>that B3 cars are inferior to asian cars, combined with a tax and tariff
>structure that favors asian car sales in the US.

I know many folks who won't ever consider a domestic vehicle either
because of their poor past experience with the big-3 or because
they've bought imports in the past and they're quite content to stick
with what they know and like. That's the reality facing the big-3 and
we can't simply wish it away.

>> > The big-3 have roughly 50% market share in the US. Saying that
>> > they "can't sell North-American cars to North American buyers"
>> > is hyperbole.
>>
>> Year after year, the big-3 continue to lose market share to their
>> foreign competition and I don't see this trend reversing anytime
>> soon.
>
>They've lost market share because there are more foreign players with
>more models in the market today vs 4 years ago.
>
>And they will continue to lose market share as the US dollar appreciates
>vs other currencies in this current climate of economic fear (or
>terror). As global stock markets tank and commodity prices fall, the US
>dollar is (or will) be seen as the only asset to hold that will not
>decline in value vs anything else, hence this will put extreme pressure
>on all US manufacturing (not just the B3).

Well, if they can't significantly trim their costs and thereby adjust
to a shrinking market or, alternatively, regain some of this lost
market share, their future looks particularly grim. We might as well
post a "do not resuscitate" sign next to their death bed.

>> BTW, isn't calling GM, Ford and Chrysler the "big-3" somewhat
>> hyperbolic in itself now that Toyota's sales surpass those of
>> both Ford and Chrysler?
>
>GM, Ford and Chrysler have collectively been called "the big-3" by the
>north american media for years, and probably got that name when there
>were other US car makers still operating (like AMC).
>
>I use the term "Big 3" because it's faster to type than the names of the
>3 US car makers, which we are lumping together here for the purpose of
>this thread.

Fair enough. There are other examples of commonly used expressions
that no longer accurately reflect current circumstances.

>> Perhaps we measure success differently. Toyota sells 3.4 times
>> more passenger cars than Chrysler; Honda outsells Chrysler
>> 2.2:1 and Nissan 1.5:1.
>
>We know there are size differences between the various car companies.
>We know that Chrysler has always been the smallest of the B3, and is
>smaller than Toyota and probably Honda as well (in the global sense).
>
>The real issue is the change of North American market share and relative
>profitability between the various players. Over the past 4 years, the
>B3 have gone from almost 60% market share to just under 50%. I don't
>know who of the B3 lost more of their share.

As stated before, the big-3 have, for all intents and purposes,
forfeited the passenger vehicle market, choosing, instead, to
concentrate their attention on the previously more profitable light
truck and SUV segment. No doubt it seemed like a reasonable strategy
at the time, but being heavily dependent on a single product group is
not without risk, as we can clearly see, and it does nothing to
address the fundamental weaknesses that underlie this choice.

>> I want a plug-in hybrid because that's the type of vehicle
>> I want to drive.
>
>Even the Prius is not a "plug-in" hybrid.
>
>I don't know who makes a "plug-in" hybrid.

No one as yet, but I expect that will change within the next two to
three years and by that point my 2002 300M will be due for
replacement.

>And I'll tell you that the consumer market is just beginning to build an
>experience base for electric power storage in cars, and it will take
>another 10 years before we know just how ergonomic and economical those
>batteries will be.
>
>Plug-in vehicles (either totally electric or hybrid) will create their
>own social problems, and soon, as people drive around with extension
>cords and try to charge-up using any exterior outlet they can find on
>any building, shed, or utility pole (essentially stealing power).

Well, we'll have to see how it all shakes out. For now, I'll worry
about gas being siphoned from my tank.

Cheers,
Paul